EDITOR'S NOTE: PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS BLOG IS BEFORE THE UPDATED FOUR-TIER SYSTEM RELEASED ON NOVEMBER 16, 2020 AND IS NOT REFLECTIVE OF THE LATEST TIER ASSIGNMENTS TO ALL CALIFORNIA'S 58 COUNTIES. THIS ALSO DOES NOT REFLECT THE LATEST POSITIVE COVID-19 STATUS UPDATE.
But what about the same four-tier system to other states such as New Mexico and New York? They only issue travel advisories related to COVID-19, but I found that both of them are slightly misleading. That is because both New Mexico and New York state uses a two-tier system to advise their residents and visitors about what states residents and visitors should avoid, but it's the numbers that can be slightly confusing on number boundaries. But with California's four-tier system, here are some examples about why California should develop a travel advisory to other states...
Take a look at New Mexico. A John Hopkins University recent survey (latest on October 21, 2020) says that New Mexico's COVID-19 positivity rate is at 6.75%, which under California's four-tier system, is under the "Red" tier. In comparison, New Mexico's governor Michelle Lujan Grisham only has a two-tier system on the New Mexico Department of Health webpage. To qualify for the "Green" tier, a state outside of New Mexico must be below a 5% positivity rate; a "Red" tier is above 5% positivity rate. But the state has not specified whether the 5% falls under the "Red" or "Green" tier categories.
The state of New York also puts other states in the travel advisory when the positivity rate is 10% or more on a 7-day rolling basis. The same survey by John Hopkins University puts New York's COVID-19 rate at 1.16%, which under California's four-tier system, is under the "Yellow" tier.
For the moment, California stands at 2.53% positive COVID-19 tests, falling under the "Orange" tier.
As of so far, I have classified the following states under one of four tiers using the same methodology that the state of California uses to classify all 58 counties. All of those states are listed based on the latest data by John Hopkins University (latest on October 21, 2020).
Key:
(Color: Positivity Rate in Percentage)
YELLOW: 0 to 1.99
ORANGE: 2 to 4.99
RED: 5 to 8
PURPLE: 8.01 and Above
CALIFORNIA'S YELLOW TIER (COVID-19 Positive Tests in %)
Maine (0.52)
Massachusetts (1.13)
New York (1.16)
District of Columbia (1.23)
New Hampshire (1.32)
Vermont (1.36)
Connecticut (1.92)
CALIFORNIA'S ORANGE TIER (COVID-19 Positive Tests in %)
Rhode Island (2.12)
Maryland (2.36)
Hawaii (2.37)
New Jersey (2.71)
Washington (3.23)
West Virginia (4.17)
Louisiana (4.29)
Alaska (4.39)
Michigan (4.59)
Ohio (4.99)
CALIFORNIA'S RED TIER (COVID-19 Positive Tests in %)
Oregon (5.35)
Colorado (5.35)
Illinois (5.65)
Virginia (5.82)
South Carolina (6.1)
Georgia (6.2)
Delaware (6.22)
North Carolina (6.28)
Minnesota (6.53)
New Mexico (6.75)
Kentucky (6.78)
Missouri (6.97)
Texas (7.67)
CALIFORNIA'S PURPLE TIER (COVID-19 Positive Tests in %)
Tennessee (8.61)
Oklahoma (8.63)
Arkansas (9.09)
Arizona (9.37)
Indiana (9.64)
Pennsylvania (9.67)
North Dakota (10.78)
Florida (12.4)
Montana (12.67)
Wisconsin (13.37)
Utah (16.13)
Alabama (16.53)
Mississippi (17.78)
Nebraska (19.18)
Kansas (19.4)
Iowa (21.2)
Idaho (29.5)
Wyoming (35.2)
South Dakota (35.73)
Nevada (58.84)
EDITOR'S NOTE: Percentage complied from John Hopkin's University, then classified into one of four tiers using the same methodology as the state of California does to all 58 counties.
So what will the four-tier travel advisory system mean for other states besides just the 58 counties in California? With the exception of essential workers, and with the four tiers that the state of California created to tighten or loosen restrictions on all 58 counties, here's what each tier would mean for each state outside of California if created:
PURPLE tier (widespread) is the most restrictive tier, and California residents who may travel to these states with a positive rate of more than 8% should strongly not travel to those states. Residents from the states in the PURPLE tier who travel to the state of California must quarantine for 14 days without any exception, or for the duration that they are staying in California if staying less than 14 days.
RED tier (substantial) is the second most restrictive tier, and California residents who may travel to those states with a positive rate between 5 to 8% should reconsider travel to those states. Residents from the states in the RED tier who travel to the state of California must either quarantine for 14 days OR get a negative COVID-19 test within 72 hours before travel. Those who are staying for under 14 days must quarantine for the entire duration of their stay in California.
ORANGE tier (moderate) is the second least restrictive tier, which is the threshold for the World Health Organization (WHO) COVID-19 testing criteria. California residents who may travel to those designated states with a positive rate between 2 to 4% would be recommended (but not required) to quarantine for 14 days. Residents from the states in the ORANGE tier are recommended (but not required) to quarantine for 14 days as a precaution.
YELLOW tier (minimal) is the least restrictive tier, which meets the World Health Organization COVID-19 testing criteria. California residents who may travel to those states with a positive rate of less than 2% will be able to travel to those states without any restrictions, but will still be wearing masks when at any public places. Residents from the states in the YELLOW tier will have the least restrictions, but are recommended (but not required) to quarantine for 14 days as a precaution.
Depending on how the state of California classifies this, the state may modify their four-tier classification for all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and as such, this will not be official travel advisory, but may likely be the guideline. The final version will rest with how California Governor Gavin Newsom and his team will configure the travel advisory. However, the state of California does ask all members the public (residents and visitors) that masks is still mandated in California to prevent spread of COVID-19.
I have not yet heard any response from the governors of both New Mexico and New York yet, but will update as needed.
Original Work: Kyle Chak
E-Mail: chak595301@gmail.com
On Social Media: @KyleSChak
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